By now, I would say that we are about 95% certain, but the bet has yet to be settled. — Stephen Hawking, A Brief History of Time (1988) In the updated and expanded edition of A Brief History of Time, Hawking states, "Although the situation with Cygnus X-1 has not changed much since we made the bet in 1975, there is now so much other observational evidence in favour of black holes that I have conceded the bet.
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